...That the Saudis have finally

...That the Saudis have finally gotten with the program?

This seems to indicate, that yes, they have.

"We will not allow a corrupt group led by deviant thought
to violate the security and stability of this land," King Fahd, Saudi's
ailing ruler, told the opening of the Saudi consultative Shura Council
on Sunday in comments on official agency SPA. "The real Muslim has
nothing to do with these actions and has no sympathy for those who
carry them out," he added. Late on Saturday, Saudi Arabia's de facto
ruler Crown Prince Abdullah warned the militants: "We tell this deviant
group and others that if they do not return to the right path, they
will meet the same fate (as Muqrin) or worse." State television showed
the militants' corpses and blamed them for a wave of violence against
foreigners in the Gulf state, a key U.S. ally and the world's biggest
oil exporter.

Note that this was said on Saudi State Television, aka the Propaganda Channel, which, it was reported last week, ran reports that the Zionists were responsible for attacks on westerners.
So, there's hope, until you read this article.

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - The al-Qaida group responsible for
beheading an American engineer said sympathizers in the Saudi security
forces provided police uniforms and cars used during the victim's
kidnapping, according to an Islamic extremist Web site Sunday. The
account of the abduction of Paul M. Johnson Jr., who was later
decapitated, highlighted the fears expressed by some diplomats and
Westerners in the kingdom that militants have infiltrated Saudi
security forces — a possibility Saudi officials have denied. The
article recounting the abduction appeared in Sawt al-Jihad, or Voice of
the Holy War, a semimonthly Internet periodical posted by al-Qaida in
the Arabian Peninsula — the group that claimed responsibility for
killing Johnson. According to the account, militants wearing police
uniforms and using police cars set up a fake checkpoint June 12 on
al-Khadma Road, leading to the airport, near Imam Mohammed bin Saud
University. "A number of the cooperators who are sincere to their
religion in the security apparatus donated those clothes and the police
cars. We ask God to reward them and that they use their energy to serve
Islam and the mujahedeen," the article read. When Johnson's car
approached the checkpoint, the militants stopped it, detained him,
anesthetized him and carried him to another car, the article said.
Earlier Saudi newspaper reports said Johnson was drugged during the
kidnapping.

Just because Al-Qaeda says it's true is no reason to believe it, but
it's hauntingly plausible to think that they've infiltrated the
security services. What's ironic here, is that the western companies
have the power here to make the House of Saud stand up and take notice.
If they evacuate all of their workers, the already shitty Saudi
infrastructure will collapse entirely. Western workers are the load
bearing wall that props up the Saudi economy. You pull that wall down
and the economy will come crashing down. But can the US afford to
let the House of Saud fall just yet? The answer, unfortunately, is no.
The oil will keep the companies and their workers there. Not to mention
the defense contractors.

But will Westerner business persons ultimately be driven
out?
Afshin Molavi, a fellow at the New America Foundation, said, "It's
almost unthinkable that the U.S. would withdraw entirely. I could see
many workers leaving the kingdom, but it's such a rich relationship for
so many defense contractors and oil companies that they'll do whatever
they can to stay in." He added, "I think what's important to remember
about Saudi Arabia is that they really are the oil price setters. They
are the central backbone of oil production, and they've usually used
this ability -- because they're the only ones with significant spare
capacity -- and they can raise the prices of oil if they cut back
production, or lower it if they increase production."
He added that the reason the world has seen high oil prices has been a
fear premium based on fears of instability, and because of an increase
in Chinese demand. Most OPEC producers are producing at or near
capacity. Only Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have
surpluses.
"When you think of Saudi Arabia, you have to think of oil prices. They
have a quarter of the world's proven oil reserves. We could probably
survive $70- to $80-dollar barrels for a little while, but the poorest
countries wouldn't be able to survive," Molavi said. "Will defense
contractors lose money? Yeah. Will oil companies lose some money if
they leave Saudi Arabia? Yeah. But the real danger is the price on oil.
"I could see engineers leaving, I could see companies leaving. ... I
would think that unless it got much worse, some of these companies
would still try to keep a bare-bones staff. ... There are American
companies there even beyond the defense and oil. There are something
like 71 McDonalds, there's Starbucks. American cars sell very well in
Saudi Arabia. You have these trading relationships that I think will go
on unabated."

Ultimately we have a situation where western workers are being used as
tools to pry apart the House of Saud. But their companies can't protect
them more than they already have; they cannot say "enough is enough"
and pull them without risking a complete and utter downfall of a
corrupt government, which while it has its serious downsides, is still
better than an Islamic fundamentalist government like Iran's. Iran
doesn't play ball; Saudi Arabia does. And while I'm not a big fan of
Saudi Arabia, it's obvious they're not as bad as they could be. It
could be worse, to our point of view, and that's precisely what
Al-Qaeda wants us to know. We're stuck dancing with the guy who brung
us, even if he's going to get some of our number killed in the
meantime, because ditching him isn't an option. A rather clever plan,
don't you think, if you look at it objectively? It may sound
cold-hearted but it is
fairly clever. They're forcing the Saudis to act, and they have acted.
But it could be argued that by cracking down, they've only given more
power to the terrorists and further increased an ulready unstable
political system possessed of a highly disenfranchised and unhappy
populace. The answer to the situation would be for the Saudis to let
their people have what they want---democracy---which would effectively
disenfranchise the terrorists. But it would also disenfranchise the
House of Saud, and that's not something anyone in the ruling family
would like to happen anytime in the near future. What's my point with
all of this? Hell if I know. I'm frightened that more guest workers in
Saudi will be killed just like Paul Johnson was killed. I'm also
frightened that US companies like Lockheed Martin will eventually pull
the plug on their operations in Saudi Arabia and that country will be
thrown into chaos. Which is not something we can afford right now. And right now
is the optimal phrase there. Iraq's not steady enough on its feet to be
our best friend in the region. And make no mistake about it: Iraq was
liberated, in part, to give the Saudis a big warning. But, of course,
this situation, in the future, will have it's own particular brand of
9/11 hindsight attached to it, and it will be wondered why we did
business with these people for such a long period of time. Well,
there's no easy answer, unfortunately, and hindsight is always about
the easy answer. This situation is the proverbial space between the
rock and the hard place, and no one's getting out of this one
unbruised.

Posted by: Kathy at 09:10 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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