Vlad the Impaler finally made his move yesterday and announced his "heir": one Dimitry Medvedev, St. Petersburg lackey, first deputy Prime Minister and---surprise, surprise, surprise---the Chairman of Gazprom. Today, Medvedev made it apparent that he appreciated the support by announcing he'd hand dear old Vlad the post of Prime Minister if he were elected President in March.

{...}Mr Medvedev said that he would ask Mr Putin to take the post of prime minister as a way of ensuring continuity in the country’s economic and political course. “I consider it principally important for our country to keep in the most important position in executive power – in the post of chairman of the Russian government – Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin,” Mr Medvedev said in brief televised remarks on Tuesday.

The announcement came just one day after Mr Putin endorsed Mr Medvedev, a soft-spoken ally from St Petersburg, as his preferred successor as president, in a move hailed by investors as signaling a continuation of Mr PutinÂ’s policies by a figure seen as less hawkish than his potential rivals for the post.

{...}“This means the team will remain,” he said. Putin will retain leverage he will also have the parliamentary majorty behind him. Medvedev will be the head of executive power. But he will not have experience with the siloviki. They will continue to see Putin as their de facto leader. "Putin will remain the real leader,” he said..

Sergei Markov said the tandem of Mr Medvedev as president and Mr Putin as prime minister would leave Mr Putin with more leverage, at least for an initial period, because Mr Medvedev had no experience of dealing with the crucial “power ministries” – the Interior and Defence Ministries, the secret services and the prosecutor general’s office.{...}

Well, no one's really surprised at this development, are they? Everyone knew that Vlad would retain power; it was simply a matter of waiting to see precisely how he would do it. About the only interesting thing about this is his choice of Medvedev, who is pro-western and not a member of the siloviki---members of Putin's entourage who are former KGB or were associated with other security services, such as Sergei Ivanov, yet another first deputy prime minister and much-banger-on of the "new" Russia's power. I find it curious that Vlad passed over Ivanov, who is much more hawkish, and whose views are much more in line with Vlad's. One could perhaps surmise that, with this move, Vlad thought Ivanov wouldn't be as pliable as previously thought, but who knows for certain.

Yet, with this appointment, I don't think we'll be seeing the end of the "agree with us or we'll shut off your heat" blackmail Gazprom is so fond of using on its former republics (and Europe, to some extent.). If anything, that will be worse. If Medvedev doesn't resign his chairmanship of Gazprom, that would mean Gazprom (and Rosneft, the state oil company) wouldn't just be rumored to be carrying out Russia's foreign policy goals, the arrangement would be formalized. While I don't know if this is possible under Russian law, it would make things very tidy, which, as we all know, is how Vlad likes things. This wouldn't be any different than when Gazprom was a wholly owned subsidiary of the Soviet Socialist Republic. If I were in charge of a major multinational oil company, you can bet that the last thing I would consider is dumping any money into developing Russia's oil and gas reserves. Considering what Russia's done in the past in terms of "repatriation" of developments like Sahkalin 2 ("environmental damage" my ass), I can only think the situation would be worse if Medvedev retains the chairmanship, is elected president, and takes his orders from Vlad.

This situation may be disturbing to those of us who remember the Cold War---and it IS disturbing---but I have to say, I'm finding this whole thing somewhat fascinating. I can't outthink Vlad on the chess moves (I suspected he'd pull something along these lines, but the specifics were beyond me, and it's not like I was alone in that, either.) but find myself watching nonetheless. You can appreciate the brilliance of the moves, even if you don't agree with the moves themselves. He's one canny bastard, that's for sure.

Posted by: Kathy at 01:08 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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